WA-05 House forecast
Safe Rep2024 lines
Polls close . Statewide at 8:00 PM local time. Every voter gets a mail ballot; vote centers are open too
Baumgartner 86% chance
- Carmela Conroy (D)-2% past 7 days14%
- Michael Baumgartner (R)+4% past 7 days86%
Chance over time
- Conroy14%
- Baumgartner86%
Chance over time, past month: Conroy from 19% to 14%; Baumgartner from 81% to 86%.
| Date | Conroy | Baumgartner |
|---|---|---|
| Sep 22, 2026 | 18% | 81% |
| Sep 29, 2026 | 18% | 81% |
| Oct 7, 2026 | 18% | 81% |
| Oct 14, 2026 | 16% | 82% |
| Oct 21, 2026 | 14% | 87% |
Projected margin
No margin forecast for this race.
Helm simulation
Not among the districts that most often decide House control in the simulation.
Context
- Held by Rep. Michael Baumgartner (R)
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