FL-27 House forecast
Lean Rep2026 lines
Polls close
Salazar 68% chance
- Eliott Rodriguez (D)-5% past 7 days32%
- María Elvira Salazar (R)+5% past 7 days68%
Chance over time
- Rodriguez32%
- Salazar68%
Chance over time, past month: Rodriguez from 28% to 32%; Salazar from 71% to 68%.
| Date | Rodriguez | Salazar |
|---|---|---|
| Sep 22, 2026 | 34% | 67% |
| Sep 29, 2026 | 37% | 62% |
| Oct 7, 2026 | 37% | 66% |
| Oct 14, 2026 | 37% | 64% |
| Oct 21, 2026 | 32% | 68% |
Projected margin
No margin forecast for this race.
Helm simulation
In simulated elections where Rodriguez wins, Democrats win the House in 97 of 100. Where Salazar wins, in 89 of 100.
Context
- New lines for 2026: the current FL-27 member was elected on different lines.