FL-03 House forecast
Safe Rep2026 lines
Polls close
Cammack 95% chance
- Seth Harp (D)-2% past 7 days4%
- Kat Cammack (R)0% past 7 days95%
Chance over time
- Harp4%
- Cammack95%
Chance over time, past month: Harp from 6% to 4%; Cammack from 94% to 95%.
| Date | Harp | Cammack |
|---|---|---|
| Sep 22, 2026 | 6% | 94% |
| Sep 29, 2026 | 7% | 94% |
| Oct 6, 2026 | 4% | 95% |
| Oct 14, 2026 | 4% | 95% |
| Oct 21, 2026 | 4% | 95% |
Projected margin
Most likely Cammack by 10–15 · 8 in 10: Cammack +24.3 to Cammack +3.5
| Margin | Chance |
|---|---|
| Cammack by 30+ | 3% |
| Cammack by 25–30 | 4% |
| Cammack by 20–25 | 20% |
| Cammack by 15–20 | 23% |
| Cammack by 10–15 | 30% |
| Cammack by 5–10 | 9% |
| Cammack by 0–5 | 4% |
| Harp wins | 7% |
Helm simulation
Not among the districts that most often decide House control in the simulation.
Context
- New lines for 2026: the current FL-03 member was elected on different lines.