FL-02 House forecast
Safe Rep2026 lines
Polls close . Statewide at 7:00 PM local time: 7:00 PM ET in most of Florida, 8:00 PM ET in the western Panhandle
Rogers 93% chance
- Amanda Green (D)0% past 7 days7%
- Austin Rogers (R)0% past 7 days93%
Chance over time
- Green7%
- Rogers93%
Chance over time, past month: Green from 9% to 7%; Rogers from 92% to 93%.
| Date | Green | Rogers |
|---|---|---|
| Sep 22, 2026 | 9% | 92% |
| Sep 29, 2026 | 9% | 90% |
| Oct 7, 2026 | 8% | 91% |
| Oct 14, 2026 | 8% | 91% |
| Oct 21, 2026 | 7% | 93% |
Projected margin
Most likely Rogers by 5–10 · 8 in 10: Rogers +16 to Rogers +0.6
| Margin | Chance |
|---|---|
| Rogers by 25+ | 1% |
| Rogers by 20–25 | 2% |
| Rogers by 15–20 | 9% |
| Rogers by 10–15 | 31% |
| Rogers by 5–10 | 35% |
| Rogers by 0–5 | 14% |
| Green by 0–5 | 8% |
| Green by 5+ | 1% |
Helm simulation
Not among the districts that most often decide House control in the simulation.
Context
- New lines for 2026: the current FL-02 member was elected on different lines.