FL-24 House forecast
Safe Dem2026 lines
Polls close
Gilbert 96% chance
- Oliver Gilbert (D)+1% past 7 days96%
- Te Mayonna Brown (R)0% past 7 days2%
Chance over time
- Gilbert95%
- Brown2%
Chance over time, past month: Gilbert from 96% to 95%; Brown from 2% to 2%.
| Date | Gilbert | Brown |
|---|---|---|
| Sep 22, 2026 | 96% | 2% |
| Sep 29, 2026 | 96% | 2% |
| Oct 6, 2026 | 96% | 2% |
| Oct 14, 2026 | 96% | 2% |
| Oct 21, 2026 | 95% | 2% |
Projected margin
Most likely Gilbert by 45–50 · 8 in 10: Gilbert +31.4 to Gilbert +55
| Margin | Chance |
|---|---|
| Brown wins | 3% |
| Gilbert by 0–15 | 1% |
| Gilbert by 15–25 | 3% |
| Gilbert by 25–30 | 1% |
| Gilbert by 30–35 | 6% |
| Gilbert by 35–40 | 5% |
| Gilbert by 40–45 | 12% |
| Gilbert by 45–50 | 26% |
| Gilbert by 50–55 | 21% |
| Gilbert by 55+ | 21% |
Helm simulation
Not among the districts that most often decide House control in the simulation.
Context
- New lines for 2026: the current FL-24 member was elected on different lines.