FL-17 House forecast
Safe Rep2026 lines
Polls close
Steube 95% chance
- Matthew Montavon (D)-1% past 7 days4%
- Greg Steube (R)-1% past 7 days95%
Chance over time
- Montavon4%
- Steube95%
Chance over time, past month: Montavon from 7% to 4%; Steube from 95% to 95%.
| Date | Montavon | Steube |
|---|---|---|
| Sep 22, 2026 | 6% | 95% |
| Sep 29, 2026 | 6% | 95% |
| Oct 7, 2026 | 5% | 95% |
| Oct 14, 2026 | 5% | 96% |
| Oct 21, 2026 | 4% | 95% |
Projected margin
Most likely Steube by 10–15 · 8 in 10: Steube +24.7 to Steube +10.4
| Margin | Chance |
|---|---|
| Steube by 30+ | 5% |
| Steube by 25–30 | 4% |
| Steube by 20–25 | 16% |
| Steube by 15–20 | 32% |
| Steube by 10–15 | 36% |
| Steube by 5–10 | 4% |
| Steube by 0–5 | 3% |
| Montavon wins | <1% |
Helm simulation
Not among the districts that most often decide House control in the simulation.
Context
- New lines for 2026: the current FL-17 member was elected on different lines.