FL-18 House forecast
Safe Rep2026 lines
Polls close
Franklin 95% chance
- Curtis Gibson (D)-2% past 7 days5%
- Scott Franklin (R)+2% past 7 days95%
Chance over time
- Gibson5%
- Franklin95%
Chance over time, past month: Gibson from 8% to 5%; Franklin from 92% to 95%.
| Date | Gibson | Franklin |
|---|---|---|
| Sep 22, 2026 | 8% | 92% |
| Sep 29, 2026 | 8% | 92% |
| Oct 6, 2026 | 8% | 92% |
| Oct 14, 2026 | 7% | 94% |
| Oct 21, 2026 | 5% | 95% |
Projected margin
Most likely Franklin by 15–20 · 8 in 10: Franklin +27.2 to Franklin +5.5
| Margin | Chance |
|---|---|
| Franklin by 30+ | 6% |
| Franklin by 25–30 | 7% |
| Franklin by 20–25 | 5% |
| Franklin by 15–20 | 26% |
| Franklin by 10–15 | 24% |
| Franklin by 5–10 | 24% |
| Franklin by 0–5 | 3% |
| Gibson wins | 5% |
Helm simulation
Not among the districts that most often decide House control in the simulation.
Context
- New lines for 2026: the current FL-18 member was elected on different lines.