FL-08 House forecast
Safe Rep2026 lines
Polls close
Haridopolos 95% chance
- Jennifer Jenkins (D)0% past 7 days4%
- Mike Haridopolos (R)-1% past 7 days95%
Chance over time
- Jenkins4%
- Haridopolos95%
Chance over time, past month: Jenkins from 2% to 4%; Haridopolos from 97% to 95%.
| Date | Jenkins | Haridopolos |
|---|---|---|
| Sep 22, 2026 | 4% | 95% |
| Sep 29, 2026 | 4% | 95% |
| Oct 6, 2026 | 7% | 95% |
| Oct 14, 2026 | 4% | 96% |
| Oct 21, 2026 | 4% | 95% |
Projected margin
Most likely Haridopolos by 5–10 · 8 in 10: Haridopolos +24.4 to Haridopolos +1.4
| Margin | Chance |
|---|---|
| Haridopolos by 30+ | 4% |
| Haridopolos by 25–30 | 5% |
| Haridopolos by 20–25 | 7% |
| Haridopolos by 15–20 | 13% |
| Haridopolos by 10–15 | 21% |
| Haridopolos by 5–10 | 28% |
| Haridopolos by 0–5 | 17% |
| Jenkins wins | 5% |
Helm simulation
Not among the districts that most often decide House control in the simulation.
Context
- New lines for 2026: the current FL-08 member was elected on different lines.