FL Governor forecast
Likely Rep
Polls close . Statewide at 7:00 PM local time: 7:00 PM ET in most of Florida, 8:00 PM ET in the western Panhandle
Donalds 81% chance
- David Jolly (D)-1% past 7 days20%
- Byron Donalds (R)+1% past 7 days81%
Chance over time
- Jolly20%
- Donalds81%
Chance over time, past month: Jolly from 21% to 20%; Donalds from 80% to 81%.
| Date | Jolly | Donalds |
|---|---|---|
| Sep 22, 2026 | 27% | 75% |
| Sep 29, 2026 | 22% | 79% |
| Oct 6, 2026 | 24% | 77% |
| Oct 14, 2026 | 21% | 79% |
| Oct 21, 2026 | 20% | 81% |
Projected margin
Most likely Donalds by 3–6 · 8 in 10: Donalds +14.2 to Jolly +2
| Margin | Chance |
|---|---|
| Donalds by 18+ | 4% |
| Donalds by 15–18 | 4% |
| Donalds by 12–15 | 5% |
| Donalds by 9–12 | 15% |
| Donalds by 6–9 | 17% |
| Donalds by 3–6 | 22% |
| Donalds by 0–3 | 16% |
| Jolly by 0–3 | 10% |
| Jolly by 3–6 | 4% |
| Jolly by 6+ | 3% |
Helm simulation
Counts toward the simulated number of governorships. There is no published control question for governors.
Context
- Governorship held by Republicans.