VT Governor forecast
Polls close . Every voter gets a mail ballot; polling places are open too
Scott 77% chance
- Amanda Janoo (D)-1% past 7 days24%
- Phil Scott (R)+2% past 7 days77%
Chance over time
- Janoo24%
- Scott77%
Key moments
· Around this time
UNH poll showed Janoo ahead of Gov. Phil Scott
A UNH poll released Sept. 24 had Amanda Janoo at 49% and Gov. Phil Scott at 43%; Scott had led by 15 points in July. Scott's campaign disputed the poll's partisan mix.
WCAX: Poll shows Gov. Phil Scott trailing Democrat Amanda Janoo (opens in a new tab) · VTDigger: Latest poll shows Gov. Phil Scott and Amanda Janoo in tightest race in a decade (opens in a new tab)
Chance over time, past month: Janoo from 8% to 24%; Scott from 92% to 77%. Press [ or ] to go to the key moment marked on the line.
| Date | Janoo | Scott |
|---|---|---|
| Sep 22, 2026 | 6% | 94% |
| Sep 29, 2026 | 15% | 85% |
| Oct 6, 2026 | 24% | 77% |
| Oct 14, 2026 | 25% | 76% |
| Oct 21, 2026 | 24% | 77% |
Projected margin
Most likely Scott by 0–5 · 8 in 10: Scott +17 to a Janoo win
| Margin | Chance |
|---|---|
| Scott by 30+ | 3% |
| Scott by 25–30 | 1% |
| Scott by 20–25 | 4% |
| Scott by 15–20 | 4% |
| Scott by 10–15 | 17% |
| Scott by 5–10 | 21% |
| Scott by 0–5 | 27% |
| Janoo wins | 24% |
Helm simulation
Counts toward the simulated number of governorships. There is no published control question for governors.
Context
- Governorship held by Republicans.