FL-06 House forecast
Safe Rep2026 lines
Polls close
Fine 95% chance
- Eric Yonce (D)+2% past 7 days4%
- Randy Fine (R)0% past 7 days95%
Chance over time
- Yonce4%
- Fine95%
Chance over time, past month: Yonce from 6% to 4%; Fine from 95% to 95%.
| Date | Yonce | Fine |
|---|---|---|
| Sep 22, 2026 | 5% | 96% |
| Sep 29, 2026 | 6% | 95% |
| Oct 7, 2026 | 6% | 95% |
| Oct 14, 2026 | 2% | 96% |
| Oct 21, 2026 | 4% | 95% |
Projected margin
Most likely Fine by 20–25 · 8 in 10: Fine +30.8 to Fine +10.6
| Margin | Chance |
|---|---|
| Fine by 35+ | 6% |
| Fine by 30–35 | 5% |
| Fine by 25–30 | 5% |
| Fine by 20–25 | 31% |
| Fine by 15–20 | 24% |
| Fine by 10–15 | 22% |
| Fine by 5–10 | 3% |
| Fine by 0–5 | 4% |
| Yonce wins | 1% |
Helm simulation
Not among the districts that most often decide House control in the simulation.
Context
- New lines for 2026: the current FL-06 member was elected on different lines.