FL-04 House forecast
Likely Rep2026 lines
Polls close
Bean 78% chance
- LaShonda Holloway (D)+9% past 7 days23%
- Aaron Bean (R)-8% past 7 days78%
Chance over time
- Holloway23%
- Bean78%
Chance over time, past month: Holloway from 11% to 23%; Bean from 89% to 78%.
| Date | Holloway | Bean |
|---|---|---|
| Sep 23, 2026 | 12% | 88% |
| Sep 30, 2026 | 12% | 87% |
| Oct 7, 2026 | 14% | 86% |
| Oct 14, 2026 | 14% | 86% |
| Oct 21, 2026 | 23% | 78% |
Projected margin
No margin forecast for this race.
Helm simulation
In simulated elections where Holloway wins, Democrats win the House in 98 of 100. Where Bean wins, in 90 of 100.
Context
- New lines for 2026: the current FL-04 member was elected on different lines.