FL-23 House forecast
Safe Dem2026 lines
Polls close
Frankel 96% chance
- Lois Frankel (D)0% past 7 days96%
- Deborah Adeimy (R)+2% past 7 days4%
Chance over time
- Frankel96%
- Adeimy4%
Chance over time, past month: Frankel from 95% to 96%; Adeimy from 6% to 4%.
| Date | Frankel | Adeimy |
|---|---|---|
| Sep 23, 2026 | 95% | 4% |
| Sep 30, 2026 | 96% | 4% |
| Oct 7, 2026 | 98% | 3% |
| Oct 14, 2026 | 96% | 3% |
| Oct 21, 2026 | 96% | 4% |
Projected margin
Most likely Frankel by 25–30 · 8 in 10: Frankel +20.7 to Frankel +35
| Margin | Chance |
|---|---|
| Adeimy wins | <1% |
| Frankel by 0–5 | 3% |
| Frankel by 5–10 | 1% |
| Frankel by 10–15 | <1% |
| Frankel by 15–20 | 2% |
| Frankel by 20–25 | 24% |
| Frankel by 25–30 | 33% |
| Frankel by 30–35 | 17% |
| Frankel by 35+ | 19% |
Helm simulation
Not among the districts that most often decide House control in the simulation.
Context
- New lines for 2026: the current FL-23 member was elected on different lines.