FL Senate forecast
Safe Rep
Polls close . Statewide at 7:00 PM local time: 7:00 PM ET in most of Florida, 8:00 PM ET in the western Panhandle
Moody 92% chance
- Angie Nixon (D)-1% past 7 days9%
- Ashley Moody (R)+1% past 7 days92%
Chance over time
- Nixon9%
- Moody92%
Chance over time, past month: Nixon from 10% to 9%; Moody from 92% to 92%.
| Date | Nixon | Moody |
|---|---|---|
| Sep 23, 2026 | 9% | 92% |
| Sep 30, 2026 | 9% | 92% |
| Oct 7, 2026 | 10% | 91% |
| Oct 14, 2026 | 10% | 91% |
| Oct 21, 2026 | 9% | 92% |
Projected margin
Most likely Moody by 6–9 · 8 in 10: Moody +14.2 to Moody +0.6
| Margin | Chance |
|---|---|
| Moody by 21+ | 2% |
| Moody by 18–21 | 3% |
| Moody by 15–18 | 4% |
| Moody by 12–15 | 5% |
| Moody by 9–12 | 16% |
| Moody by 6–9 | 31% |
| Moody by 3–6 | 21% |
| Moody by 0–3 | 11% |
| Nixon by 0–3 | 5% |
| Nixon by 3+ | 3% |
Helm simulation
Decides Senate control in 2 of 100 simulations.
In simulated elections where Nixon wins, Democrats win the Senate in 93 of 100. Where Moody wins, in 62 of 100.
Context
- Seat held by Republicans.