MT Senate forecast
Polls close . Statewide at 8:00 PM local time
Alme 92% chance
- Independent +1% past 7 days8%
- Kurt Alme (R)-1% past 7 days92%
Chance over time
- Independent8%
- Alme92%
Key moments
· Around this time
Poll found Alme well ahead of a split field
A GrayHouse survey taken June 23-24 and published by Inside Elections on June 30 had Republican Kurt Alme at 41%, Democrat Alani Bankhead at 25% and independent Seth Bodnar at 17%. Inside Elections had moved the race to Solid Republican the week before. In mid-June, Bankhead said she would not leave the race to clear the way for Bodnar.
Inside Elections: Montana Senate: New Poll Confirms GOP Edge (opens in a new tab) · Montana Public Radio: Democratic Senate candidate says she's 'in it to win it' (opens in a new tab) · Semafor: Divided Montana Senate field helps Republicans (opens in a new tab)
Chance over time, past month: Independent from 7% to 8%; Alme from 92% to 92%.
| Date | Independent | Alme |
|---|---|---|
| Sep 22, 2026 | 7% | 92% |
| Sep 29, 2026 | 9% | 92% |
| Oct 7, 2026 | 7% | 92% |
| Oct 14, 2026 | 7% | 93% |
| Oct 21, 2026 | 8% | 92% |
Projected margin
Most likely Alme by 9–12 · 8 in 10: Alme +19.7 to Alme +3.1
| Margin | Chance |
|---|---|
| Alme by 21+ | 4% |
| Alme by 18–21 | 13% |
| Alme by 15–18 | 15% |
| Alme by 12–15 | 17% |
| Alme by 9–12 | 18% |
| Alme by 6–9 | 8% |
| Alme by 3–6 | 15% |
| Alme by 0–3 | 4% |
| Independent by 0–3 | 2% |
| Independent by 3+ | 4% |