MT-02 House forecast
Safe Rep2024 lines
Polls close . Statewide at 8:00 PM local time
Downing 98% chance
- Brian Miller (D)+1% past 7 days2%
- Troy Downing (R)+1% past 7 days98%
Chance over time
- Miller2%
- Downing98%
Chance over time, past month: Miller from 5% to 2%; Downing from 95% to 98%.
| Date | Miller | Downing |
|---|---|---|
| Sep 22, 2026 | 5% | 95% |
| Sep 29, 2026 | 6% | 95% |
| Oct 6, 2026 | 5% | 95% |
| Oct 14, 2026 | 1% | 98% |
| Oct 21, 2026 | 2% | 98% |
Projected margin
Most likely Downing by 15–20 · 8 in 10: Downing +34 to Downing +14.4
| Margin | Chance |
|---|---|
| Downing by 40+ | 4% |
| Downing by 35–40 | 5% |
| Downing by 30–35 | 4% |
| Downing by 25–30 | 17% |
| Downing by 20–25 | 26% |
| Downing by 15–20 | 33% |
| Downing by 10–15 | 9% |
| Downing by 0–10 | 1% |
| Miller wins | 2% |