FL-16 House forecast
Likely Rep2026 lines
Polls close
Gruters 80% chance
- Kelly Kirschner (D)+2% past 7 days19%
- Sydney Gruters (R)-3% past 7 days80%
Chance over time
- Kirschner19%
- Gruters80%
Chance over time, past month: Kirschner from 16% to 19%; Gruters from 85% to 80%.
| Date | Kirschner | Gruters |
|---|---|---|
| Sep 22, 2026 | 17% | 83% |
| Sep 29, 2026 | 16% | 84% |
| Oct 6, 2026 | 16% | 83% |
| Oct 14, 2026 | 18% | 83% |
| Oct 21, 2026 | 19% | 80% |
Projected margin
Most likely Gruters by 3–6 · 8 in 10: Gruters +17.9 to Kirschner +2.3
| Margin | Chance |
|---|---|
| Gruters by 18+ | 10% |
| Gruters by 15–18 | 7% |
| Gruters by 12–15 | 5% |
| Gruters by 9–12 | 6% |
| Gruters by 6–9 | 22% |
| Gruters by 3–6 | 23% |
| Gruters by 0–3 | 12% |
| Kirschner by 0–3 | 8% |
| Kirschner by 3–6 | 2% |
| Kirschner by 6+ | 6% |
Helm simulation
In simulated elections where Kirschner wins, Democrats win the House in 98 of 100. Where Gruters wins, in 90 of 100.
Context
- New lines for 2026: the current FL-16 member was elected on different lines.