FL-05 House forecast
Safe Rep2026 lines
Polls close
Rutherford 93% chance
- Rachel Grage (D)-2% past 7 days7%
- John Rutherford (R)+3% past 7 days93%
Chance over time
- Grage7%
- Rutherford93%
Chance over time, past month: Grage from 8% to 7%; Rutherford from 93% to 93%.
| Date | Grage | Rutherford |
|---|---|---|
| Sep 23, 2026 | 8% | 93% |
| Sep 30, 2026 | 8% | 93% |
| Oct 7, 2026 | 7% | 92% |
| Oct 14, 2026 | 9% | 91% |
| Oct 21, 2026 | 7% | 93% |
Projected margin
Most likely Rutherford by 10–15 · 8 in 10: Rutherford +24.6 to Rutherford +0.2
| Margin | Chance |
|---|---|
| Rutherford by 30+ | 5% |
| Rutherford by 25–30 | 4% |
| Rutherford by 20–25 | 12% |
| Rutherford by 15–20 | 21% |
| Rutherford by 10–15 | 27% |
| Rutherford by 5–10 | 19% |
| Rutherford by 0–5 | 3% |
| Grage wins | 10% |
Helm simulation
Not among the districts that most often decide House control in the simulation.
Context
- New lines for 2026: the current FL-05 member was elected on different lines.