FL-09 House forecast
Lean Rep2026 lines
Polls close
Green 70% chance
- Darren Soto (D)0% past 7 days30%
- Dan Green (R)0% past 7 days70%
Chance over time
- Soto30%
- Green70%
Chance over time, past month: Soto from 33% to 30%; Green from 69% to 70%.
| Date | Soto | Green |
|---|---|---|
| Sep 22, 2026 | 33% | 69% |
| Sep 29, 2026 | 32% | 69% |
| Oct 7, 2026 | 30% | 70% |
| Oct 14, 2026 | 30% | 70% |
| Oct 21, 2026 | 30% | 70% |
Projected margin
No margin forecast for this race.
Helm simulation
In simulated elections where Soto wins, Democrats win the House in 97 of 100. Where Green wins, in 89 of 100.
Context
- New lines for 2026: the current FL-09 member was elected on different lines.