KS-04 House forecast
Safe Rep2024 lines
Polls close . Districtwide at 7:00 PM local time
Estes 95% chance
- Katy Tyndell (D)-2% past 7 days4%
- Ron Estes (R)0% past 7 days95%
Chance over time
- Tyndell4%
- Estes95%
Chance over time, past month: Tyndell from 7% to 4%; Estes from 93% to 95%.
| Date | Tyndell | Estes |
|---|---|---|
| Sep 22, 2026 | 6% | 93% |
| Sep 29, 2026 | 6% | 94% |
| Oct 7, 2026 | 5% | 95% |
| Oct 14, 2026 | 5% | 95% |
| Oct 21, 2026 | 4% | 95% |
Projected margin
Most likely Estes by 15–20 · 8 in 10: Estes +26.8 to Estes +2.5
| Margin | Chance |
|---|---|
| Estes by 30+ | 3% |
| Estes by 25–30 | 10% |
| Estes by 20–25 | 19% |
| Estes by 15–20 | 24% |
| Estes by 10–15 | 22% |
| Estes by 5–10 | 6% |
| Estes by 0–5 | 11% |
| Tyndell wins | 4% |
Helm simulation
Not among the districts that most often decide House control in the simulation.
Context
- Held by Rep. Ron Estes (R)
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Ballot measures
- Kansas passes ballot measure banning noncitizens from voting?Yes 82%