KS-03 House forecast
Safe Dem2024 lines
Polls close . Districtwide at 7:00 PM local time
Davids 95% chance
- Sharice Davids (D)-1% past 7 days95%
- Eric Jenkins (R)0% past 7 days5%
Chance over time
- Davids95%
- Jenkins5%
Chance over time, past month: Davids from 95% to 95%; Jenkins from 6% to 5%.
| Date | Davids | Jenkins |
|---|---|---|
| Sep 23, 2026 | 95% | 5% |
| Sep 30, 2026 | 96% | 5% |
| Oct 7, 2026 | 96% | 5% |
| Oct 14, 2026 | 95% | 5% |
| Oct 21, 2026 | 95% | 5% |
Projected margin
Most likely Davids by 20–25 · 8 in 10: Davids +7.7 to Davids +26.6
| Margin | Chance |
|---|---|
| Jenkins wins | 4% |
| Davids by 0–5 | 3% |
| Davids by 5–10 | 5% |
| Davids by 10–15 | 18% |
| Davids by 15–20 | 23% |
| Davids by 20–25 | 34% |
| Davids by 25–30 | 9% |
| Davids by 30+ | 4% |
Helm simulation
Not among the districts that most often decide House control in the simulation.
Context
- Held by Rep. Sharice Davids (D)
More in Kansas
Ballot measures
- Kansas passes ballot measure banning noncitizens from voting?Yes 82%