KS Senate forecast
Polls close . Statewide at 7:00 PM local time: 8:00 PM ET in most of Kansas, 9:00 PM ET in four Mountain-time counties
Marshall 62% chance
- Adam Hamilton (D)+1% past 7 days39%
- Roger Marshall (R)-1% past 7 days62%
Chance over time
- Hamilton39%
- Marshall62%
Key moments
· Around this time
Marshall and Hamilton debated at Kansas State Fair
The two candidates met at the State Fair in Hutchinson. Hamilton pressed Marshall on his ties to President Trump, on immigration and on beef imports. Marshall blamed drought and regulation for the beef industry's troubles and argued Hamilton was out of step with Kansas. A vocal crowd of Hamilton supporters shouted Marshall down several times.
Chance over time, past month: Hamilton from 27% to 39%; Marshall from 74% to 62%.
| Date | Hamilton | Marshall |
|---|---|---|
| Sep 22, 2026 | 33% | 68% |
| Sep 29, 2026 | 30% | 71% |
| Oct 7, 2026 | 37% | 64% |
| Oct 14, 2026 | 38% | 63% |
| Oct 21, 2026 | 39% | 62% |
Projected margin
Most likely Marshall by 0–5 · 8 in 10: Marshall +10.4 to a Hamilton win
| Margin | Chance |
|---|---|
| Marshall by 30+ | <1% |
| Marshall by 25–30 | 1% |
| Marshall by 20–25 | 1% |
| Marshall by 15–20 | 2% |
| Marshall by 10–15 | 6% |
| Marshall by 5–10 | 18% |
| Marshall by 0–5 | 36% |
| Hamilton wins | 37% |
Helm simulation
Decides Senate control in 8 of 100 simulations.
In simulated elections where Hamilton wins, Democrats win the Senate in 86 of 100. Where Marshall wins, in 51 of 100.
Context
- Seat held by Republicans.
More in Kansas
Ballot measures
- Kansas passes ballot measure banning noncitizens from voting?Yes 82%