KS-01 House forecast
Safe Rep2024 lines
Polls close . Statewide at 7:00 PM local time: 8:00 PM ET in most of Kansas, 9:00 PM ET in four Mountain-time counties
Mann 96% chance
- Lauren Reinhold (D)-2% past 7 days1%
- Tracey Mann (R)-1% past 7 days96%
Chance over time
- Reinhold1%
- Mann96%
Chance over time, past month: Reinhold from 6% to 1%; Mann from 94% to 96%.
| Date | Reinhold | Mann |
|---|---|---|
| Sep 22, 2026 | 6% | 94% |
| Sep 29, 2026 | 6% | 94% |
| Oct 6, 2026 | 6% | 95% |
| Oct 14, 2026 | 3% | 97% |
| Oct 21, 2026 | 1% | 96% |
Projected margin
Most likely Mann by 20–25 · 8 in 10: Mann +34.5 to Mann +16.3
| Margin | Chance |
|---|---|
| Mann by 40+ | 5% |
| Mann by 35–40 | 3% |
| Mann by 30–35 | 20% |
| Mann by 25–30 | 22% |
| Mann by 20–25 | 28% |
| Mann by 15–20 | 16% |
| Mann by 10–15 | 2% |
| Mann by 0–10 | 1% |
| Reinhold wins | 2% |
Helm simulation
Not among the districts that most often decide House control in the simulation.
Context
- Held by Rep. Tracey Mann (R)
More in Kansas
Ballot measures
- Kansas passes ballot measure banning noncitizens from voting?Yes 82%