KS Governor forecast
Polls close . Statewide at 7:00 PM local time: 8:00 PM ET in most of Kansas, 9:00 PM ET in four Mountain-time counties
Masterson 77% chance
- Cindy Holscher (D)-1% past 7 days24%
- Ty Masterson (R)+2% past 7 days77%
Chance over time
- Holscher24%
- Masterson77%
Key moments
· Around this time
Kelly backed Holscher after her primary pick lost
Gov. Laura Kelly, who had supported Ethan Corson in the Democratic primary, endorsed Cindy Holscher on Aug. 5. She asked Kansans of all parties to back Holscher against Ty Masterson in November.
KWCH: Gov. Kelly endorses Cindy Holscher for governor (opens in a new tab) · High Plains Public Radio (Kansas Reflector): Masterson scores win in GOP primary for Kansas governor; Holscher prevails in Democratic race (opens in a new tab)
Chance over time, past month: Holscher from 30% to 24%; Masterson from 70% to 77%.
| Date | Holscher | Masterson |
|---|---|---|
| Sep 22, 2026 | 31% | 70% |
| Sep 29, 2026 | 28% | 74% |
| Oct 6, 2026 | 25% | 74% |
| Oct 14, 2026 | 25% | 75% |
| Oct 21, 2026 | 24% | 77% |
Projected margin
Most likely Masterson by 0–3 · 8 in 10: Masterson +15.2 to Holscher +3.4
| Margin | Chance |
|---|---|
| Masterson by 18+ | 5% |
| Masterson by 15–18 | 5% |
| Masterson by 12–15 | 3% |
| Masterson by 9–12 | 16% |
| Masterson by 6–9 | 14% |
| Masterson by 3–6 | 17% |
| Masterson by 0–3 | 19% |
| Holscher by 0–3 | 11% |
| Holscher by 3–6 | 9% |
| Holscher by 6+ | 2% |
Helm simulation
Counts toward the simulated number of governorships. There is no published control question for governors.
Context
- Governorship held by Democrats.
- Projected flip from Democrats to Republicans: the favourite is not from the party that holds it.
More in Kansas
Ballot measures
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