NY Governor forecast
Polls close
Hochul 95% chance
- Kathy Hochul (D)0% past 7 days95%
- Bruce Blakeman (R)0% past 7 days5%
Chance over time
- Hochul95%
- Blakeman5%
Key moments
· Around this time
Think-tank poll put Stefanik a point ahead
A survey by the Manhattan Institute, a conservative think tank, was taken Oct. 22-26 and released Oct. 28. In a possible 2026 matchup it had Rep. Elise Stefanik, then expected to run, at 43% and Gov. Kathy Hochul at 42%. Bruce Blakeman had not yet entered the race.
Manhattan Institute: New Poll Shows Mamdani Ahead, Despite Unpopular Agenda; Stefanik Leads Democrats Statewide (opens in a new tab) · Mediaite: SHOCK POLL: Trump Loyalist Elise Stefanik Bests Kathy Hochul in NY Governor's Race (opens in a new tab)
Chance over time, past month: Hochul from 95% to 95%; Blakeman from 6% to 5%.
| Date | Hochul | Blakeman |
|---|---|---|
| Sep 22, 2026 | 95% | 6% |
| Sep 29, 2026 | 96% | 5% |
| Oct 7, 2026 | 96% | 4% |
| Oct 14, 2026 | 96% | 4% |
| Oct 21, 2026 | 95% | 5% |
Projected margin
Most likely Hochul by 15–20 · 8 in 10: Hochul +6.1 to Hochul +28.3
| Margin | Chance |
|---|---|
| Blakeman wins | 4% |
| Hochul by 0–5 | 2% |
| Hochul by 5–10 | 15% |
| Hochul by 10–15 | 22% |
| Hochul by 15–20 | 22% |
| Hochul by 20–25 | 16% |
| Hochul by 25–30 | 12% |
| Hochul by 30–35 | 3% |
| Hochul by 35+ | 3% |
Helm simulation
Counts toward the simulated number of governorships. There is no published control question for governors.
Context
- Governorship held by Democrats.