NY-10 House forecast
Safe Dem2024 lines
Polls close
Lander 98% chance
- Brad Lander (D)-1% past 7 days98%
- Jennifer Moore (R)0% past 7 days<1%
Chance over time
- Lander98%
- Moore<1%
Chance over time, past month: Lander from 98% to 98%; Moore from 1% to <1%.
| Date | Lander | Moore |
|---|---|---|
| Sep 23, 2026 | 98% | 1% |
| Sep 30, 2026 | 97% | 1% |
| Oct 7, 2026 | 98% | <1% |
| Oct 14, 2026 | 98% | <1% |
| Oct 21, 2026 | 98% | <1% |
Projected margin
Most likely Lander by 70–75 · 8 in 10: Lander +59.7 to Lander +79.6
| Margin | Chance |
|---|---|
| Moore wins | <1% |
| Lander by 0–45 | 3% |
| Lander by 45–55 | 1% |
| Lander by 55–60 | 6% |
| Lander by 60–65 | 15% |
| Lander by 65–70 | 28% |
| Lander by 70–75 | 30% |
| Lander by 75–80 | 7% |
| Lander by 80–85 | 5% |
| Lander by 85+ | 5% |
Helm simulation
Not among the districts that most often decide House control in the simulation.
Context
- Held by Rep. Daniel S. Goldman (D)