NY-01 House forecast
Safe Rep2024 lines
Polls close
LaLota 86% chance
- Chris Gallant (D)-3% past 7 days13%
- Nick LaLota (R)+1% past 7 days86%
Chance over time
- Gallant13%
- LaLota86%
Chance over time, past month: Gallant from 26% to 13%; LaLota from 76% to 86%.
| Date | Gallant | LaLota |
|---|---|---|
| Sep 22, 2026 | 20% | 81% |
| Sep 29, 2026 | 16% | 83% |
| Oct 6, 2026 | 20% | 79% |
| Oct 14, 2026 | 16% | 85% |
| Oct 21, 2026 | 13% | 86% |
Projected margin
Most likely LaLota by 3–6 · 8 in 10: LaLota +17.5 to Gallant +2
| Margin | Chance |
|---|---|
| LaLota by 18+ | 9% |
| LaLota by 15–18 | 5% |
| LaLota by 12–15 | 11% |
| LaLota by 9–12 | 10% |
| LaLota by 6–9 | 11% |
| LaLota by 3–6 | 18% |
| LaLota by 0–3 | 16% |
| Gallant by 0–3 | 15% |
| Gallant by 3–6 | 1% |
| Gallant by 6+ | 4% |
Helm simulation
Not among the districts that most often decide House control in the simulation.
Context
- Held by Rep. Nick LaLota (R)