NY-11 House forecast
Safe Rep2024 lines
Polls close
Malliotakis 95% chance
- Michael DeCillis (D)0% past 7 days5%
- Nicole Malliotakis (R)0% past 7 days95%
Chance over time
- DeCillis5%
- Malliotakis95%
Chance over time, past month: DeCillis from 7% to 5%; Malliotakis from 93% to 95%.
| Date | DeCillis | Malliotakis |
|---|---|---|
| Sep 23, 2026 | 7% | 93% |
| Sep 30, 2026 | 5% | 95% |
| Oct 7, 2026 | 5% | 95% |
| Oct 14, 2026 | 6% | 95% |
| Oct 21, 2026 | 5% | 95% |
Projected margin
Most likely Malliotakis by 15–20 · 8 in 10: Malliotakis +24.4 to Malliotakis +6.3
| Margin | Chance |
|---|---|
| Malliotakis by 30+ | 3% |
| Malliotakis by 25–30 | 5% |
| Malliotakis by 20–25 | 21% |
| Malliotakis by 15–20 | 25% |
| Malliotakis by 10–15 | 24% |
| Malliotakis by 5–10 | 16% |
| Malliotakis by 0–5 | 3% |
| DeCillis wins | 3% |
Helm simulation
Not among the districts that most often decide House control in the simulation.
Context
- Held by Rep. Nicole Malliotakis (R)