NY-18 House forecast
Safe Dem2024 lines
Polls close
Ryan 96% chance
- Pat Ryan (D)0% past 7 days96%
- Jacqueline Auringer (R)-1% past 7 days4%
Chance over time
- Ryan96%
- Auringer4%
Chance over time, past month: Ryan from 93% to 96%; Auringer from 7% to 4%.
| Date | Ryan | Auringer |
|---|---|---|
| Sep 22, 2026 | 93% | 7% |
| Sep 29, 2026 | 93% | 7% |
| Oct 6, 2026 | 95% | 5% |
| Oct 14, 2026 | 95% | 5% |
| Oct 21, 2026 | 96% | 4% |
Projected margin
Most likely Ryan by 15–20 · 8 in 10: Ryan +1.7 to Ryan +28.7
| Margin | Chance |
|---|---|
| Auringer wins | 5% |
| Ryan by 0–5 | 15% |
| Ryan by 5–10 | 5% |
| Ryan by 10–15 | 6% |
| Ryan by 15–20 | 25% |
| Ryan by 20–25 | 23% |
| Ryan by 25–30 | 16% |
| Ryan by 30–35 | 4% |
| Ryan by 35+ | 2% |
Helm simulation
Not among the districts that most often decide House control in the simulation.
Context
- Held by Rep. Patrick Ryan (D)