NY-05 House forecast
Safe Dem2024 lines
Polls close
Meeks 98% chance
- Gregory Meeks (D)+1% past 7 days98%
- George Marsh (R)0% past 7 days1%
Chance over time
- Meeks98%
- Marsh1%
Chance over time, past month: Meeks from 97% to 98%; Marsh from 1% to 1%.
| Date | Meeks | Marsh |
|---|---|---|
| Sep 23, 2026 | 97% | 1% |
| Sep 30, 2026 | 97% | 2% |
| Oct 7, 2026 | 97% | 1% |
| Oct 14, 2026 | 97% | 1% |
| Oct 21, 2026 | 98% | 1% |
Projected margin
Most likely Meeks by 50–55 · 8 in 10: Meeks +46.3 to Meeks +61.7
| Margin | Chance |
|---|---|
| Marsh wins | 1% |
| Meeks by 0–30 | 1% |
| Meeks by 30–40 | 1% |
| Meeks by 40–45 | <1% |
| Meeks by 45–50 | 22% |
| Meeks by 50–55 | 43% |
| Meeks by 55–60 | 18% |
| Meeks by 60–65 | 9% |
| Meeks by 65–70 | 4% |
| Meeks by 70+ | <1% |
Helm simulation
Not among the districts that most often decide House control in the simulation.
Context
- Held by Rep. Gregory W. Meeks (D)