NY-24 House forecast
Safe Rep2024 lines
Polls close
Tenney 96% chance
- Alissa Ellman (D)0% past 7 days2%
- Claudia Tenney (R)+1% past 7 days96%
Chance over time
- Ellman2%
- Tenney96%
Chance over time, past month: Ellman from 7% to 2%; Tenney from 93% to 96%.
| Date | Ellman | Tenney |
|---|---|---|
| Sep 22, 2026 | 7% | 93% |
| Sep 29, 2026 | 7% | 94% |
| Oct 7, 2026 | 4% | 95% |
| Oct 14, 2026 | 2% | 97% |
| Oct 21, 2026 | 2% | 96% |
Projected margin
Most likely Tenney by 15–20 · 8 in 10: Tenney +30.1 to Tenney +2.9
| Margin | Chance |
|---|---|
| Tenney by 35+ | 2% |
| Tenney by 30–35 | 8% |
| Tenney by 25–30 | 13% |
| Tenney by 20–25 | 13% |
| Tenney by 15–20 | 23% |
| Tenney by 10–15 | 20% |
| Tenney by 5–10 | 6% |
| Tenney by 0–5 | 13% |
| Ellman wins | 3% |
Helm simulation
Not among the districts that most often decide House control in the simulation.
Context
- Held by Rep. Claudia Tenney (R)