CA-04 House forecast
Safe Dem2026 lines
Polls close . Statewide at 8:00 PM local time. Every voter gets a mail ballot; polling places are open too
Democrats 96% chance
- Democrats 0% past 7 days96%
- Republicans -3% past 7 days1%
Chance over time
- Democrats96%
- Republicans1%
Chance over time, past month: Democrats from 96% to 96%; Republicans from 4% to 1%.
| Date | Democrats | Republicans |
|---|---|---|
| Sep 22, 2026 | 96% | 3% |
| Sep 29, 2026 | 96% | 3% |
| Oct 6, 2026 | 96% | 3% |
| Oct 14, 2026 | 96% | 3% |
| Oct 21, 2026 | 96% | 1% |
Projected margin
No margin forecast for this race.
Helm simulation
Not among the districts that most often decide House control in the simulation.
Context
- New lines for 2026: the current CA-04 member was elected on different lines.
More in California
51 more House districts
Ballot measures
- Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026?No 78%