CA-51 House forecast
Safe Dem2026 lines
Polls close . Statewide at 8:00 PM local time. Every voter gets a mail ballot; polling places are open too
Jacobs 97% chance
- Sara Jacobs (D)+1% past 7 days97%
- Ricardo Cabrera (R)0% past 7 days2%
Chance over time
- Jacobs97%
- Cabrera2%
Chance over time, past month: Jacobs from 96% to 97%; Cabrera from 5% to 2%.
| Date | Jacobs | Cabrera |
|---|---|---|
| Sep 22, 2026 | 96% | 5% |
| Sep 29, 2026 | 96% | 2% |
| Oct 6, 2026 | 96% | 3% |
| Oct 14, 2026 | 96% | 2% |
| Oct 21, 2026 | 97% | 2% |
Projected margin
No margin forecast for this race.
Helm simulation
Not among the districts that most often decide House control in the simulation.
Context
- New lines for 2026: the current CA-51 member was elected on different lines.
More in California
51 more House districts
Ballot measures
- Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026?No 78%