CA-23 House forecast
Safe Rep2026 lines
Polls close . Statewide at 8:00 PM local time. Every voter gets a mail ballot; polling places are open too
Obernolte 98% chance
- Tessa Lynn Hodge (D)-1% past 7 days2%
- Jay Obernolte (R)+1% past 7 days98%
Chance over time
- Hodge2%
- Obernolte98%
Chance over time, past month: Hodge from 6% to 2%; Obernolte from 93% to 98%.
| Date | Hodge | Obernolte |
|---|---|---|
| Sep 22, 2026 | 6% | 93% |
| Sep 29, 2026 | 6% | 93% |
| Oct 6, 2026 | 6% | 95% |
| Oct 14, 2026 | 3% | 97% |
| Oct 21, 2026 | 2% | 98% |
Projected margin
No margin forecast for this race.
Helm simulation
Not among the districts that most often decide House control in the simulation.
Context
- New lines for 2026: the current CA-23 member was elected on different lines.
More in California
51 more House districts
Ballot measures
- Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026?No 78%