CA-05 House forecast
Safe Rep2026 lines
Polls close . Statewide at 8:00 PM local time. Every voter gets a mail ballot; polling places are open too
McClintock 93% chance
- Michael Masuda (D)-1% past 7 days6%
- Tom McClintock (R)+2% past 7 days93%
Chance over time
- Masuda6%
- McClintock93%
Chance over time, past month: Masuda from 7% to 6%; McClintock from 94% to 93%.
| Date | Masuda | McClintock |
|---|---|---|
| Sep 22, 2026 | 7% | 94% |
| Sep 29, 2026 | 7% | 94% |
| Oct 7, 2026 | 7% | 91% |
| Oct 14, 2026 | 7% | 91% |
| Oct 21, 2026 | 6% | 93% |
Projected margin
No margin forecast for this race.
Helm simulation
Not among the districts that most often decide House control in the simulation.
Context
- New lines for 2026: the current CA-05 member was elected on different lines.
More in California
51 more House districts
Ballot measures
- Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026?No 78%