CA Governor forecast
Polls close . Statewide at 8:00 PM local time. Every voter gets a mail ballot; polling places are open too
Becerra 96% chance
- Xavier Becerra (D)0% past 7 days96%
- Steve Hilton (R)-1% past 7 days3%
Chance over time
- Becerra97%
- Hilton3%
Key moments
· What happened
Swalwell exits California governor race
Rep. Eric Swalwell, described as the Democratic front-runner, suspended his campaign after being accused of sexual assault, which he denied; a poll later that week found Xavier Becerra up 15 points among Democrats.
Anchorage Daily News (AP): Swalwell suspends campaign for California governor after being accused of sexual assault (opens in a new tab) · ABC7 San Francisco: Xavier Becerra gains massive jump in new CA governor's race poll after Swalwell exit (opens in a new tab)
· Around this time
Becerra faced rivals' criticism at televised primary debate
At an eight-candidate debate at Pomona College broadcast by CBS-owned California stations, rivals directed much of their criticism at Steyer and Becerra. Becerra had gained ground in polls and fundraising after Swalwell left the race.
Chance over time, past month: Becerra from 94% to 97%; Hilton from 5% to 3%.
| Date | Becerra | Hilton |
|---|---|---|
| Sep 22, 2026 | 95% | 5% |
| Sep 29, 2026 | 96% | 4% |
| Oct 6, 2026 | 96% | 4% |
| Oct 14, 2026 | 96% | 4% |
| Oct 21, 2026 | 97% | 3% |
Projected margin
No margin forecast for this race.
Helm simulation
Counts toward the simulated number of governorships. There is no published control question for governors.
Context
- Governorship held by Democrats.
More in California
52 more House districts
Ballot measures
- Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026?No 78%