AK Governor forecast
Polls close . Statewide at 8:00 PM local time: midnight ET in most of Alaska, 1:00 AM ET in the western Aleutians
Kreiss-Tomkins 79% chance
- Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins (D)+3% past 7 days79%
- Bernadette Wilson (R)-6% past 7 days17%
Chance over time
- Kreiss-Tomkins79%
- Wilson17%
Key moments
· What happened · lead changed
Two Democrats finished first and second in primary
In Alaska's Aug. 18 top-four primary, Democrats Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins and Tom Begich finished first and second with about a fifth of the vote each. Republicans Bernadette Wilson and Dave Bronson placed third and fourth.
Alaska Public Media: Kreiss-Tomkins, Begich, Wilson and Bronson lead in governor primary results (opens in a new tab) · Alaska's News Source (KTUU): Democrats lead in governor's race, Wilson and Bronson poised to make it out of competitive Republican field (opens in a new tab)
Chance over time, past month: Kreiss-Tomkins from 83% to 79%; Wilson from 14% to 17%.
| Date | Kreiss-Tomkins | Wilson |
|---|---|---|
| Sep 22, 2026 | 83% | 16% |
| Sep 29, 2026 | 78% | 20% |
| Oct 7, 2026 | 79% | 20% |
| Oct 14, 2026 | 77% | 25% |
| Oct 21, 2026 | 79% | 17% |
Projected margin
No margin forecast for this race.
Helm simulation
Counts toward the simulated number of governorships. There is no published control question for governors.
Context
- Governorship held by Republicans.
- Projected flip from Republicans to Democrats: the favourite is not from the party that holds it.
More in Alaska
Ballot measures
- Alaska passes ballot measure banning noncitizens from voting?Yes 87%
- Alaska passes ballot measure repealing ranked choice voting?No 61%