AK Senate forecast
Polls close . Statewide at 8:00 PM local time: midnight ET in most of Alaska, 1:00 AM ET in the western Aleutians
Peltola 75% chance
- Mary Peltola (D)+1% past 7 days75%
- Sen. Dan Sullivan (R)-1% past 7 days26%
Chance over time
- Peltola75%
- Sullivan26%
Key moments
· What happened · lead changed
Report said Peltola was set to challenge Sen. Sullivan
Axios reported on Jan. 6 that former Rep. Mary Peltola was preparing to run against Sen. Dan Sullivan; she formally entered the race six days later.
Axios: Scoop: Mary Peltola moves toward Alaska Senate campaign (opens in a new tab) · Alaska Public Media: Mary Peltola enters Alaska U.S. Senate race (opens in a new tab)
· No single event explains this move · lead changed
No clear event found
No Alaska Senate development in the window could be tied to the shift in established reporting.
Chance over time, past month: Peltola from 74% to 75%; Sullivan from 27% to 26%.
| Date | Peltola | Sullivan |
|---|---|---|
| Sep 22, 2026 | 81% | 27% |
| Sep 29, 2026 | 73% | 28% |
| Oct 6, 2026 | 74% | 28% |
| Oct 14, 2026 | 74% | 27% |
| Oct 21, 2026 | 75% | 26% |
Projected margin
No margin forecast for this race.
Helm simulation
Decides Senate control in 8 of 100 simulations.
In simulated elections where Peltola wins, Democrats win the Senate in 74 of 100. Where Sullivan wins, in 36 of 100.
Context
- Seat held by Republicans.
- Projected flip from Republicans to Democrats: the favourite is not from the party that holds it.
More in Alaska
Ballot measures
- Alaska passes ballot measure banning noncitizens from voting?Yes 87%
- Alaska passes ballot measure repealing ranked choice voting?No 61%