TX-22 House forecast
Safe Rep2026 lines
Polls close . Districtwide at 7:00 PM local time
Nehls 95% chance
- Marquette Greene-Scott (D)-1% past 7 days5%
- Trever Nehls (R)0% past 7 days95%
Chance over time
- Greene-Scott5%
- Nehls95%
Chance over time, past month: Greene-Scott from 8% to 5%; Nehls from 93% to 95%.
| Date | Greene-Scott | Nehls |
|---|---|---|
| Sep 23, 2026 | 8% | 93% |
| Sep 30, 2026 | 8% | 93% |
| Oct 7, 2026 | 8% | 92% |
| Oct 14, 2026 | 5% | 95% |
| Oct 21, 2026 | 5% | 95% |
Projected margin
Most likely Nehls by 10–15 · 8 in 10: Nehls +23.8 to Nehls +6.8
| Margin | Chance |
|---|---|
| Nehls by 35+ | 2% |
| Nehls by 30–35 | 3% |
| Nehls by 25–30 | 2% |
| Nehls by 20–25 | 11% |
| Nehls by 15–20 | 29% |
| Nehls by 10–15 | 31% |
| Nehls by 5–10 | 19% |
| Nehls by 0–5 | 1% |
| Greene-Scott wins | 2% |
Helm simulation
Not among the districts that most often decide House control in the simulation.
Context
- New lines for 2026: the current TX-22 member was elected on different lines.