TX-38 House forecast
Safe Rep2026 lines
Polls close . Districtwide at 7:00 PM local time
Bonck 97% chance
- Melissa McDonough (D)0% past 7 days3%
- Jon Bonck (R)0% past 7 days97%
Chance over time
- McDonough3%
- Bonck97%
Chance over time, past month: McDonough from 6% to 3%; Bonck from 92% to 97%.
| Date | McDonough | Bonck |
|---|---|---|
| Sep 23, 2026 | 6% | 93% |
| Sep 30, 2026 | 7% | 91% |
| Oct 7, 2026 | 9% | 91% |
| Oct 14, 2026 | 3% | 97% |
| Oct 21, 2026 | 3% | 97% |
Projected margin
No margin forecast for this race.
Helm simulation
Not among the districts that most often decide House control in the simulation.
Context
- New lines for 2026: the current TX-38 member was elected on different lines.