TX-21 House forecast
Safe Rep2026 lines
Polls close . Districtwide at 7:00 PM local time
Teixeira 95% chance
- Kristin Hook (D)-1% past 7 days4%
- Mark Teixeira (R)+1% past 7 days95%
Chance over time
- Hook4%
- Teixeira95%
Chance over time, past month: Hook from 6% to 4%; Teixeira from 94% to 95%.
| Date | Hook | Teixeira |
|---|---|---|
| Sep 22, 2026 | 6% | 94% |
| Sep 29, 2026 | 6% | 94% |
| Oct 7, 2026 | 6% | 92% |
| Oct 14, 2026 | 4% | 96% |
| Oct 21, 2026 | 4% | 95% |
Projected margin
Most likely Teixeira by 5–10 · 8 in 10: Teixeira +21.3 to Teixeira +5.5
| Margin | Chance |
|---|---|
| Teixeira by 30+ | 5% |
| Teixeira by 25–30 | <1% |
| Teixeira by 20–25 | 7% |
| Teixeira by 15–20 | 16% |
| Teixeira by 10–15 | 32% |
| Teixeira by 5–10 | 34% |
| Teixeira by 0–5 | 5% |
| Hook wins | 1% |
Helm simulation
Not among the districts that most often decide House control in the simulation.
Context
- New lines for 2026: the current TX-21 member was elected on different lines.