TX-04 House forecast
Safe Rep2026 lines
Polls close . Districtwide at 7:00 PM local time
Fallon 96% chance
- Jason Pearce (D)+3% past 7 days3%
- Pat Fallon (R)+1% past 7 days96%
Chance over time
- Pearce3%
- Fallon96%
Chance over time, past month: Pearce from 6% to 3%; Fallon from 95% to 96%.
| Date | Pearce | Fallon |
|---|---|---|
| Sep 22, 2026 | 5% | 95% |
| Sep 29, 2026 | 5% | 95% |
| Oct 6, 2026 | 5% | 96% |
| Oct 14, 2026 | 1% | 96% |
| Oct 21, 2026 | 3% | 96% |
Projected margin
Most likely Fallon by 20–25 · 8 in 10: Fallon +31.9 to Fallon +6.7
| Margin | Chance |
|---|---|
| Fallon by 35+ | 5% |
| Fallon by 30–35 | 9% |
| Fallon by 25–30 | 2% |
| Fallon by 20–25 | 28% |
| Fallon by 15–20 | 20% |
| Fallon by 10–15 | 17% |
| Fallon by 5–10 | 14% |
| Fallon by 0–5 | 2% |
| Pearce wins | 3% |
Helm simulation
Not among the districts that most often decide House control in the simulation.
Context
- New lines for 2026: the current TX-04 member was elected on different lines.