TX-03 House forecast
Safe Rep2026 lines
Polls close . Districtwide at 7:00 PM local time
Self 95% chance
- Evan Hunt (D)-1% past 7 days4%
- Keith Self (R)0% past 7 days95%
Chance over time
- Hunt4%
- Self95%
Chance over time, past month: Hunt from 6% to 4%; Self from 94% to 95%.
| Date | Hunt | Self |
|---|---|---|
| Sep 23, 2026 | 6% | 95% |
| Sep 30, 2026 | 4% | 95% |
| Oct 7, 2026 | 4% | 95% |
| Oct 14, 2026 | 5% | 95% |
| Oct 21, 2026 | 4% | 95% |
Projected margin
Most likely Self by 10–15 · 8 in 10: Self +32.5 to Self +6
| Margin | Chance |
|---|---|
| Self by 35+ | 8% |
| Self by 30–35 | 5% |
| Self by 25–30 | 3% |
| Self by 20–25 | 4% |
| Self by 15–20 | 16% |
| Self by 10–15 | 31% |
| Self by 5–10 | 28% |
| Self by 0–5 | 3% |
| Hunt wins | 1% |
Helm simulation
Not among the districts that most often decide House control in the simulation.
Context
- New lines for 2026: the current TX-03 member was elected on different lines.