TX-10 House forecast
Safe Rep2026 lines
Polls close . Districtwide at 7:00 PM local time
Gober 91% chance
- Caitlin Rourk (D)-2% past 7 days8%
- Chris Gober (R)+1% past 7 days91%
Chance over time
- Rourk8%
- Gober91%
Chance over time, past month: Rourk from 11% to 8%; Gober from 89% to 91%.
| Date | Rourk | Gober |
|---|---|---|
| Sep 23, 2026 | 8% | 91% |
| Sep 30, 2026 | 7% | 91% |
| Oct 7, 2026 | 8% | 91% |
| Oct 14, 2026 | 10% | 91% |
| Oct 21, 2026 | 8% | 91% |
Projected margin
Most likely Gober by 10–15 · 8 in 10: Gober +25.4 to Gober +0.4
| Margin | Chance |
|---|---|
| Gober by 30+ | 4% |
| Gober by 25–30 | 7% |
| Gober by 20–25 | 7% |
| Gober by 15–20 | 19% |
| Gober by 10–15 | 28% |
| Gober by 5–10 | 18% |
| Gober by 0–5 | 9% |
| Rourk wins | 9% |
Helm simulation
Not among the districts that most often decide House control in the simulation.
Context
- New lines for 2026: the current TX-10 member was elected on different lines.