OH-14 House forecast
Safe Rep2026 lines
Polls close
Joyce 97% chance
- Maria Jukic (D)-2% past 7 days2%
- David Joyce (R)+1% past 7 days97%
Chance over time
- Jukic2%
- Joyce97%
Chance over time, past month: Jukic from 6% to 2%; Joyce from 94% to 97%.
| Date | Jukic | Joyce |
|---|---|---|
| Sep 22, 2026 | 6% | 94% |
| Sep 29, 2026 | 6% | 94% |
| Oct 6, 2026 | 3% | 96% |
| Oct 14, 2026 | 4% | 96% |
| Oct 21, 2026 | 2% | 97% |
Projected margin
Most likely Joyce by 15–20 · 8 in 10: Joyce +25.4 to Joyce +1.7
| Margin | Chance |
|---|---|
| Joyce by 30+ | 3% |
| Joyce by 25–30 | 8% |
| Joyce by 20–25 | 9% |
| Joyce by 15–20 | 27% |
| Joyce by 10–15 | 17% |
| Joyce by 5–10 | 16% |
| Joyce by 0–5 | 14% |
| Jukic wins | 5% |
Helm simulation
Not among the districts that most often decide House control in the simulation.
Context
- New lines for 2026: the current OH-14 member was elected on different lines.