OH Governor forecast
Polls close
Acton 79% chance
- Amy Acton (D)+7% past 7 days79%
- Vivek Ramaswamy (R)-7% past 7 days22%
Chance over time
- Acton79%
- Ramaswamy22%
Key moments
· Around this time · lead changed
Sponsored poll put Acton 10 points ahead
A survey by EMC Research for the Ohio Environmental Council, an advocacy group, came out around March 12. It polled 1,343 likely voters in February and had Amy Acton at 53% and Vivek Ramaswamy at 43%. Other polls at the time showed a closer race.
Newsweek (1): Vivek Ramaswamy's Chances of Losing in Ohio Governor Race—Poll (opens in a new tab) · Newsweek (2): Vivek Ramaswamy Dealt Double Polling Blow in Ohio Governor Race (opens in a new tab) · Just the News: Ramaswamy trailing Democratic opponent Acton by 10 points in Ohio governor race, new poll shows (opens in a new tab)
· Around this time · lead changed
Ohio firefighters union endorsed Acton
The Ohio Association of Professional Firefighters endorsed Democrat Amy Acton at a Cincinnati campaign stop. Ramaswamy's campaign pointed to its own police and business group endorsements.
Chance over time, past month: Acton from 61% to 79%; Ramaswamy from 41% to 22%.
| Date | Acton | Ramaswamy |
|---|---|---|
| Sep 22, 2026 | 60% | 42% |
| Sep 29, 2026 | 61% | 40% |
| Oct 6, 2026 | 68% | 32% |
| Oct 14, 2026 | 72% | 28% |
| Oct 21, 2026 | 79% | 22% |
Projected margin
Most likely Acton by 3–6 · 8 in 10: Ramaswamy +2.9 to Acton +12
| Margin | Chance |
|---|---|
| Ramaswamy by 12+ | 2% |
| Ramaswamy by 9–12 | 1% |
| Ramaswamy by 6–9 | 5% |
| Ramaswamy by 3–6 | 1% |
| Ramaswamy by 0–3 | 12% |
| Acton by 0–3 | 7% |
| Acton by 3–6 | 20% |
| Acton by 6–9 | 18% |
| Acton by 9–12 | 15% |
| Acton by 12+ | 19% |
Helm simulation
Counts toward the simulated number of governorships. There is no published control question for governors.
Context
- Governorship held by Republicans.
- Projected flip from Republicans to Democrats: the favourite is not from the party that holds it.