WI Governor forecast
Polls close . Statewide at 8:00 PM local time
Crowley 81% chance
- David Crowley (D)0% past 7 days81%
- Tom Tiffany (R)0% past 7 days20%
Chance over time
- Crowley81%
- Tiffany20%
Key moments
· Around this time · lead changed
Barnes ended his campaign as Hong led a primary poll
Mandela Barnes ended his campaign July 30, a day after a Marquette poll showed Francesca Hong leading the Democratic primary at 38%, with Barnes at 16% and Crowley at 7%.
WPR: Barnes ends bid for governor, calls for Democrats to unite (opens in a new tab) · Wisconsin Watch: With less than two weeks to go, key indicators point to a Hong-Tiffany matchup for Wisconsin governor (opens in a new tab)
· What happened · lead changed
Crowley narrowly won Democratic primary
Milwaukee County Executive David Crowley edged poll leader Francesca Hong by about half a point in the Aug. 11 primary. Rep. Tom Tiffany won the Republican nomination with about 95%.
WUWM 89.7 (Milwaukee Public Media): Crowley upsets Hong to face Trump-backed Tiffany in race for Wisconsin governor (opens in a new tab) · PBS Wisconsin: Crowley's victory sets up a general election match with Tiffany in Wisconsin's 2026 race for governor (opens in a new tab)
Chance over time, past month: Crowley from 84% to 81%; Tiffany from 16% to 20%.
| Date | Crowley | Tiffany |
|---|---|---|
| Sep 22, 2026 | 87% | 16% |
| Sep 29, 2026 | 86% | 14% |
| Oct 7, 2026 | 81% | 19% |
| Oct 14, 2026 | 81% | 20% |
| Oct 21, 2026 | 81% | 20% |
Projected margin
Most likely Crowley by 6–9 · 8 in 10: Tiffany +2.5 to Crowley +10.6
| Margin | Chance |
|---|---|
| Tiffany by 12+ | <1% |
| Tiffany by 9–12 | <1% |
| Tiffany by 6–9 | 2% |
| Tiffany by 3–6 | 6% |
| Tiffany by 0–3 | 14% |
| Crowley by 0–3 | 18% |
| Crowley by 3–6 | 22% |
| Crowley by 6–9 | 23% |
| Crowley by 9–12 | 10% |
| Crowley by 12+ | 5% |