WI-04 House forecast
Safe Dem2024 lines
Polls close . Statewide at 8:00 PM local time
Moore 95% chance
- Gwen Moore (D)-1% past 7 days95%
- Tim Rogers (R)+3% past 7 days4%
Chance over time
- Moore95%
- Rogers4%
Chance over time, past month: Moore from 97% to 95%; Rogers from 1% to 4%.
| Date | Moore | Rogers |
|---|---|---|
| Sep 23, 2026 | 97% | 1% |
| Sep 30, 2026 | 97% | 1% |
| Oct 7, 2026 | 96% | 1% |
| Oct 14, 2026 | 97% | 1% |
| Oct 21, 2026 | 95% | 4% |
Projected margin
Most likely Moore by 50–55 · 8 in 10: Moore +49.5 to Moore +69.3
| Margin | Chance |
|---|---|
| Rogers wins | <1% |
| Moore by 0–30 | 5% |
| Moore by 30–40 | <1% |
| Moore by 40–45 | 1% |
| Moore by 45–50 | 3% |
| Moore by 50–55 | 23% |
| Moore by 55–60 | 21% |
| Moore by 60–65 | 19% |
| Moore by 65–70 | 19% |
| Moore by 70+ | 7% |