WI-06 House forecast
Safe Rep2024 lines
Polls close . Statewide at 8:00 PM local time
Grothman 93% chance
- Brad Smith (D)-1% past 7 days7%
- Glenn Grothman (R)+2% past 7 days93%
Chance over time
- Smith7%
- Grothman93%
Chance over time, past month: Smith from 6% to 7%; Grothman from 95% to 93%.
| Date | Smith | Grothman |
|---|---|---|
| Sep 22, 2026 | 6% | 95% |
| Sep 29, 2026 | 6% | 95% |
| Oct 6, 2026 | 7% | 93% |
| Oct 14, 2026 | 9% | 91% |
| Oct 21, 2026 | 7% | 93% |
Projected margin
Most likely Grothman by 10–15 · 8 in 10: Grothman +24.8 to Grothman +3.2
| Margin | Chance |
|---|---|
| Grothman by 30+ | 2% |
| Grothman by 25–30 | 7% |
| Grothman by 20–25 | 12% |
| Grothman by 15–20 | 10% |
| Grothman by 10–15 | 34% |
| Grothman by 5–10 | 20% |
| Grothman by 0–5 | 11% |
| Smith wins | 3% |