WI-03 House forecast
Likely Dem2024 linesProjected flip R → D
Polls close . Statewide at 8:00 PM local time
Cooke 74% chance
- Rebecca Cooke (D)+1% past 7 days74%
- Derrick Van Orden (R)0% past 7 days26%
Chance over time
- Cooke74%
- Van Orden26%
Chance over time, past month: Cooke from 71% to 74%; Van Orden from 28% to 26%.
| Date | Cooke | Van Orden |
|---|---|---|
| Sep 23, 2026 | 71% | 28% |
| Sep 30, 2026 | 73% | 26% |
| Oct 7, 2026 | 73% | 26% |
| Oct 14, 2026 | 74% | 26% |
| Oct 21, 2026 | 74% | 26% |
Projected margin
Most likely Cooke by 0–3 · 8 in 10: Van Orden +8.1 to Cooke +12
| Margin | Chance |
|---|---|
| Van Orden by 12+ | 6% |
| Van Orden by 9–12 | 3% |
| Van Orden by 6–9 | 3% |
| Van Orden by 3–6 | 5% |
| Van Orden by 0–3 | 13% |
| Cooke by 0–3 | 19% |
| Cooke by 3–6 | 16% |
| Cooke by 6–9 | 12% |
| Cooke by 9–12 | 14% |
| Cooke by 12+ | 10% |
Helm simulation
Decides House control in 1 of 100 simulations.
In simulated elections where Cooke wins, Democrats win the House in 94 of 100. Where Van Orden wins, in 83 of 100.
Context
- Held by Rep. Derrick Van Orden (R)
- Projected flip from Republicans to Democrats: the favourite is not from the party that holds it.